Duggan made a point early on as mayor of being measured on whether Detroit’s population grows. He said in 2014, as he began his first term, that he would “be judged on one thing: whether the administration can reverse that trend.”
As he began his second term in January 2018, the mayor said updated figures were expected that spring that would show the city gained population in 2017, but it did not happen. When Duggan took office on Jan. 1, 2014, the city’s population was around 680,000.
“I’ve always believed that a mayor should be judged by more people moving in or moving out,” Duggan said Wednesday. “It took longer than I would have liked, but if you look anywhere in the city right now, there are apartments being built. People are fixing up houses and moving in.”
Is Detroit’s population undercounted?
Kurt Metzger, a demographer who has studied Detroit extensively and director emeritus of Data Driven Detroit, said that he would estimate that Detroit is closer to 650,000 people, maybe even as high as 660,000. He pointed to increased construction and more as signs of positive change and population growth for the city.
“The city has been gaining population for years, it’s just never shown up,” Metzger said about the bureau’s numbers. “It’s going to accelerate, and the 2024 numbers are going to show much higher growth. It’s going to accelerate for the next few years.”
Metzger contended the Census Bureau has undercounted the city for years, in large part because of the way it counts demolitions against population. In many cities, demolitions represent a loss of population. But in Detroit, demolitions often are simply the removal of buildings that have been abandoned for years, Metzger said.
The city’s consistent challenges to the Census Bureau’s estimates are working, he added. The update of the 2022 numbers are a result of that, Metzger said, and of getting the bureau to better understand what demolition means in Detroit.
“We’re getting them to finally listen,” he said. “The growth last year was true, and there was probably even more of it. We’re catching up what was missed, yes, but this was growth.”
How other cities fared
Detroit is far from the only large city in Michigan to lose people since 2020. Many of Michigan’s largest communities have shrunk in the same time period — Grand Rapids, Michigan’s second most populous city, decreased 1.15% to 196,608 from April 1, 2020, to July 1, 2023, while Warren, the state’s third largest city, fell 2% to 136,655 people in the same time period.
Nine of Michigan’s 10 largest cities shrank at least some during the three-year period since 2020. Macomb Township was the exception, gaining 480 people to 92,747, or about 1.19%.
In large part, some of the smallest communities across the state have grown since 2020, helping to slow the state’s population decline. Like Detroit, Michigan has shrunk since 2020 — when it had 10,077,674 people — but grew between 2022 and 2023 to 10,037,261. Roughly two-thirds of all Michiganians live in towns with less than 50,000 people, a higher rate than even the national average of about 61%.
The place that saw the largest percent growth between 2020 and 2023 was in Springdale Township in northwest Michigan’s Manistee County, according to the Census Bureau. It grew 43.85% — from 853 people in 2020 to 1,227 in 2023, a growth of 374 people.
Some local officials were surprised to hear about the developments. But Springdale Township Clerk Penny Nelson said that the increase in registered voters in recent years showed that was true.
“The stats don’t lie,” Nelson said. “There are more people up here. It’s people who live here, and it’s snowbirds. We have some people who build vacation homes and stay up here, but they work downstate.”
There are a lot of reasons people might pick Springdale Township, she said. The taxes are low, and the township is near vacation destinations such as Crystal Mountain. Even if people wanted to expand, they likely couldn’t: The township’s infrastructure is built for a small community, not a large subdivision, Nelson said.
It’s not perfect, she said — there is a road that could probably stand to be repaved. To shop, she travels about 40 minutes to Traverse City. An avid shopper herself, she joked that towns like hers help to keep Amazon in business.
But being in a small town offers a break that other places can’t, Nelson said. She and her husband are both originally from Chicago before moving to Walled Lake and ultimately ending up in Springdale Township.
“People have had enough of the big towns,” Nelson said. “Just driving through downstate drives me crazy, and then I come back here and it’s a lovely place to be. I think in bigger cities, people look around and say, ‘Is this the life I want to live? What are my values?’ Here, you can get a hunk of property and really enjoy the space.”
What’s driving small town growth
That’s likely what is driving a lot of people to smaller towns, said Reynolds Farley, research professor emeritus at the University of Michigan’s Population Studies Center. The expenses of living in larger communities can be too much for people. Housing, in particular, has gotten expensive, particularly near cities, and that pushes people out, Reynolds said.
But Michigan is still more affordable than many other states, he said. The state itself is relatively financially secure, and the environment is “attractive,” Farley said. Growth in small towns is a good sign for Michigan and what is to come, he said.
“I think people want to be where they’re welcome,” Farley said. “For some people, that’s Detroit with its amenities, and for others, that is a small town with low taxes and land available. Michigan has something for everyone.”
